In the future man will explore distant worlds, and create new Earths on rocks orbiting other Suns. At least, that's the future laid out in most science fiction novels. But will it really come to pass? According to renowned astrophysicist Stephen Hawking, it is not merely a dream, but a necessary step if we hope to have any future at all.
Avoiding Extinction
In an interview with Big Think, Hawking notes that there have been times in our history when we have stood on the brink of annihilation, citing the Cuban missile crisis as one example. And with the rapid advance of technology and ever growing political contention these situations will only increase in frequency.
Hawking believes that if we do not achieve the ability to set up colonies in the next two centuries that mankind could face extinction at our own hand, never mind the natural or alien catastrophes that could occur in the interim.
He makes an interesting point; the same genetic tendencies, aggression and self-preservation, that allowed for our survival in more primitive times now leads to escalating conflict in more civilized times. Therefore, setting up colonies around the galaxy would strengthen the chances for survival of our race. Even if one planet experiences collapse, there would be others to carry on the torch of humanity.
Can We Really Avoid the Collapse of Humanity?
Of course this is only a solution to an extinction problem, not a protection of Earth solution. I fear that we as a civilization of passed the point of no return on that front. There is too much aggression, diversion of ideology and deep running ire for long term peace to ever reign on Earth (not to mention the effect that we are having on the health of our planet). And it is this state of events that will ultimately lead to our downfall, just as Hawking predicts. Maybe not in the next hundred years, or perhaps not even in the next thousand, but some day.
My issue with Hawking's assessment, therefore, is that simply leaving the planet will not quell these contentious circumstances. The fundamental issues will follow us to whatever planet we decide to inhabit. In short, I believe that if the downfall of man is, in fact, imminent in the next millennia that simply expanding to other worlds will not stave that destiny. It may postpone the inevitable, but the same problems will permeate through any colony whether here or on another world.
With fear of sounding like a pessimist, I must confess that I believe that it would take a massive shift in world wide ideology to stop the runaway train that is our inevitable downfall. Happily, I believe that this is possible. Though painful, I imagine that some future event, perhaps the near extinction of humanity (perhaps through some natural disaster), or something equally decisive, will bring us to a crossroads. And I believe that man will instinctually chose survival and prosperity over continued conflict.
Searching for a New Home
Assuming that Hawking is right, and that we one day will need to search out a new home, I do not share the sense of urgency that Hawking laid out. I believe that humanity will live to fight on for centuries to come. Not forever, obviously, but I give us more than a hundred years or so. Which is good, because I also don't share Hawking's optimism that we could posses the technology to explore other worlds in the next two centuries.
I believe it entirely possible that we could set up a colony on Mars in Hawking's time frame, however the technological advancements that would be needed to leave our solar system are considerable. We don't yet even possess the theoretical understanding to make such interstellar travel possible. Of course, looking back 200 years, I doubt that the technology that we have today could have been comprehended. So I could very well be wrong (and I wholeheartedly hope that I am), but it seems very unlikely.
What Would It Take to Explore Other Worlds?
For the sake of discussion, let's assume that I am wrong, and that mankind possesses the potential to develop interstellar travel technology in the next century. The monetary investment, not to mention the dangers of developing such an enterprise, would be considerable. In this dawn of spending oversight, and tightening of belts, I find it hard to believe that the governments of the world would get behind a project of such immense cost.
So unfortunately, I think that the moment that investments in such advanced technology becomes a reality will coincide with our need for the technology (i.e. we are facing extinction). And by then it may be too late. We need to be thinking about, and investing in, these technologies now if we hope to have them when we need them. But that's always a hard sell.
I hope that I am wrong, but with the direction that this country, and indeed the world, is headed, I see an uphill battle on the horizon. But here is hoping that the resiliency that mankind has shown over the millennia continues to propel us into a prosperous future and away from the dark times that Stephen Hawking and myself fear lay before us in the coming centuries.
