That's the question proposed by Alan Boyle in his MSNBC blog Cosmic Log. Boyle has been attending the 2008 Space Elevator Conference, taking place this weekend on Microsoft's Seattle-area campus.

Image Above:This illustration by artist Pat Rawling shows the concept of a space elevator as viewed from the geostationary transfer station looking down the length of the elevator towards the Earth.
Click on image for full scale version.

He says "considering that this is an event primarily attended by elevator enthusiasts, you may find some of the answers surprising."

Those answering the question range from Bradley Edwards, president of New York-based Black Line Ascension; who says it's a matter of money and with $7 billion to $10 billion it would require much less time than 50 years to Tom Nugent, project manager for Seattle-based LaserMotive; who believes safety concerns will derail any possible space elevator.

What is a space elevator?

This "once upon a time" science fiction concept of a space elevator has been envisioned and studied as a real mass transportation system in the latter part of the 21st century. David Smitherman of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center's Advanced Projects Office has compiled plans for such an elevator. The space elevator concept is a structure extending from the surface of the Earth to geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) at 35,786 km in altitude. The tower would be approximately 50 km tall with a cable tethered to the top. Its center mass would be at GEO such that the entire structure orbits the Earth in sync with the Earth's rotation maintaining a stationary position over its base attachment at the equator. Electromagnetic vehicles traveling along the cable could serve as a mass transportation system for transporting people, payloads, and power between space and Earth.

So, what about Alan's question?

He says, "Even if these technologies bear fruit on Earth, the space elevator's success is not assured." He lists many of the questions being raised at the conference and speaks with many experts who weigh in on both sides of the issue.

What do you think? Will we see a Space Elevator within our lifetime? Answer our poll question and share your opinion in our comments.

Image Credit: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC)

The heads of the International Space Station (ISS) agencies from Canada, Europe, Japan, Russia and the United States met at European Space Agency (ESA) Headquarters in Paris on July 17, 2008, to review ISS cooperation. As part of their discussions, they noted the significantly expanded capability that the ISS now provides for on-orbit research and technology development activities and as an engineering test bed for flight systems and operations that are critical to future space exploration initiatives. These activities improve the quality of life on Earth by expanding the frontiers of human knowledge.

The Heads of Agency also noted the Partners' significant accomplishments since their last meeting in January 2007, including the delivery of Node 2 (Harmony), two new laboratories (the ESA Columbus Module and the Japanese Experiment Module Kibo), and Dextre, Canada's two-armed special purpose dexterous manipulator. In addition to the completion of six challenging ISS assembly missions with the U.S. Space Shuttle, the Heads of Agency recognized the maiden flight of the European Automated Transfer Vehicle, the establishment of the global ISS ground operation control center network with the addition of new European and Japanese ISS operations centers and the successful flights of Russian Soyuz and Progress vehicles. The Partners emphasized the critical importance of expanded operations of Russian Soyuz and Progress vehicles for ISS total crew transportation, rescue and cargo delivery.

The Heads of Agency reviewed current ISS development, configuration and operations activities across the partnership. They considered implementing plans to maximize the benefits from the increase to a six-person crew in 2009 and discussed efforts to ensure that essential space transportation capabilities (both crew and cargo) will be available across the partnership for the life of the program. The Partners acknowledged the need for the additional Russian modules to be provided in 2009 and 2010 that will maximize six-person ISS operations and utilization.

The Heads of Agency discussed their respective ongoing activities to enhance upmass and downmass transportation capabilities required for a robust utilization of the ISS and for preparing capabilities for the future. These include Japan's H-2 Transfer Vehicle in the next year, the U.S. Commercial Orbital Transportation Services and the U.S. Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle; together with the current operational vehicles, the U.S. Shuttle (up to 2010), Russian Soyuz and Progress, and ESA Automated Transfer Vehicle. These capabilities will respond to the ISS operations and utilization requirements. They also noted new initiatives such as the ESA plan for an Automated Transfer Vehicle-Advanced Return Vehicle system for downmass from the ISS and the Russia-ESA joint preparatory activities on an advanced Crew Space Transportation System. The Heads of Agency expressed their interest in making these capacities available for the benefit of the whole partnership and can provide sustainability of the ISS and prepare for future exploration endeavors.

As the partnership moves closer to completion of ISS assembly, the Heads of Agency reaffirmed their common interest in utilizing the space station to its full capacity for a period meaningful for stakeholders and users. The Partners noted that a continuation of operations beyond 2015 would not be precluded by any significant technical challenges. Recognizing the substantial programmatic benefits to continued ISS operations and utilization beyond the current planning horizon, the Heads of Agency committed to work with their respective governments to assess support for such a goal.